The Saudi Supercup Curse: Why Sunday's El Clásico Winner Might Already Have One Hand on La Liga
An intriguing pattern has emerged since the Spanish Supercup moved to Saudi Arabia - the team that lifts the trophy in Jeddah tends to go on and win La Liga too.
Since the Spanish Supercup found its controversial new home in Saudi Arabia, winning it has become more than just securing the season’s first piece of silverware - it’s emerged as an eerily accurate predictor of who’ll be crowned La Liga champions come May.
The Pattern Is Clear
As Barcelona and Real Madrid prepare to face off in their fourth consecutive Supercup final this Sunday, the stats don’t lie - whenever one of these giants has triumphed in Jeddah, they’ve gone on to lift the league title months later. Bit of a crystal ball situation, innit?
The pattern is proper striking:
- Real Madrid won the 2020, 2022 and 2024 editions, then went on to win La Liga each time
- Barcelona claimed the 2023 and 2025 trophies, and - you guessed it - were crowned league champions both seasons
- The only exception? 2021, when Athletic Club won the Supercup and Atlético Madrid took La Liga (neither Barça nor Madrid won either trophy)
More Than Just Bragging Rights
Sunday’s clash carries extra weight beyond the obvious rivalry. Barcelona cruised past an underwhelming Athletic Bilbao in their semi, while Los Blancos had to dig deep to overcome their city rivals Atlético.
For both teams, winning represents more than just getting one over on their arch-enemies. If recent history is anything to go by, whoever lifts the trophy might as well start making space in their cabinet for La Liga too.
A Sign of Things to Come?
Real’s 2024 Supercup victory featured a proper hammering of Barcelona, foreshadowing their eventual domestic and European double. Similarly, Barcelona’s dominant displays in their 2023 and 2025 final victories against Madrid proved to be perfect previews of their league dominance that followed.
What started as coincidence now looks more like a pattern. The Supercup seems to function as an early-season barometer, revealing which of Spain’s giants has the necessary quality, depth and mentality to go the distance in La Liga.
Come Sunday night in Jeddah, one team might not just be celebrating the first trophy of the season, but potentially providing us with a strong hint about who’ll be top of the tree come May. That’s worth more than a few bob, I’d say.