Opta's supercomputer gives Spanish giants the cold shoulder in Champions League race
Arsenal tipped as heavy favourites while Real Madrid's chances are dramatically downplayed despite their historical dominance in Europe's premier competition.
Opta’s number-crunching supercomputer has delivered its Champions League verdict, and it’s not painting a pretty picture for Spanish football’s heavyweights. The stats boffins have given La Liga’s finest a proper kick in the teeth.
Premier League dominance
The Gunners are sitting pretty at the top of Opta’s projections with a whopping 28.3% chance of lifting the trophy - streets ahead of the competition. Not just favourites for the title, Arsenal are given:
- 85.3% chance of reaching the quarters
- 63.5% probability of making the semis
- 45.7% likelihood of appearing in the final
Bayern Munich come in second with a 15.9% shot at glory, followed by Manchester City (10.0%), Barcelona (8.8%), Liverpool (7.4%) and PSG (6.2%). The Premier League and Bundesliga are absolutely bossing the forecasts, with Barça the only Spanish club getting a proper look-in among the top contenders.
Barcelona leading the Spanish charge
The Catalan giants emerge as Spain’s best hope according to the data. They’re given a solid 60.8% chance of making the quarters and 39.1% of reaching the semis. The supercomputer even reckons they’ve got an 18.4% shot at making the final.
Real Madrid’s royal snub
Here’s where it gets proper strange. The 14-time European champions - yes, you read that right - are given just a 3.2% chance of adding to their collection. The Kings of Europe have been reduced to commoners in this algorithmic forecast!
Despite their unparalleled European pedigree, Los Blancos are only given:
- 73.4% chance of reaching the last 16
- 38.1% probability of making the quarters
- 14.7% likelihood of reaching the semis
- A measly 7.2% chance of making the final
Atlético’s uphill battle
Simeone’s men fare even worse, with just a 2.1% chance of lifting the trophy. They’re given a 71.1% probability of reaching the last 16, with diminishing returns thereafter: 34.8% for the quarters, 14.3% for the semis, and 5.2% for the final.
Numbers vs History
Of course, as any proper football fan knows, Champions League nights have a habit of tearing up the script. Real Madrid in particular have made a career of defying the odds in Europe.
Still, it’s a bit of a liberty that the supercomputer has shown such disrespect to the Spanish contingent. For any of La Liga’s big three to reach the final, they’ll need to make these predictions look like a right load of cobblers.